It's not often that mere mortals like ourselves get to hear a view of the world that hasn't been filtered through the White House press office. That's why it was refreshing to read an interview with Army Maj. Gen. John Custer, the commander of the Army’s Intelligence Center and Fort Huachuca, that was published in the Sierra Vista Herald this week.
Custer gave a run-down of what he believes will be the biggest threats the country faces in the coming years and notes that the U.S. will "lurch from crisis to crisis," as it always has.
Terrorism will be a danger, but he sees the greatest threat to world stability in the demand for water.
Using Yemen as an example, the general said its current population of 19 million is expected to be 40 million by 2020. Before then, by 2017, Yemeni oil will no longer be exported.
“What do you do when your country has no oil, no water, a tribal society already leveraged by Islamic radicalism and has a demographic bulge of 20 million, of which 15 million will be under (the age of ) 21, that have expectations?’’ he asked.
The cost of building desalination plants and pipelines to run hundreds of miles is impossible, the Intelligence Center commander said.
“We’re facing that kind of situation in a vast number of areas,” Custer said.
Water, the liquid of life, is in short supply, and some places with large amounts of water, such as Takijistan can cause problems for neighbors downstream, he said.
“Takijistan has mountain water and wants to build dams and sell hydroelectric power, but that would stop the water flow down to Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan,” Custer said.
India has been wanting to dam the Indus River, the lifeblood of the subcontinent, to the detriment of Pakistan, he added.
“That’s what wars over water comes from,” the general said.
Custer acknowledged that the demand for oil was also a risk that pitted the United States, once the major consumer of fossil fuels, against developing countries such as China and India.
Custer also reflected on past U.S. mistakes.
“We conspired with al-Qaida to defeat the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. Who do you think were carrying shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles? Who do you think were planting land mines? They were the guys we now call al-Qaida,” Custer said. “We were building a network to defeat the Soviets in Afghanistan. We worked in concert with al-Qaida and the Taliban to defeat the Soviet Union in Afghanistan because the Soviet Union was the enemy.”
And, in the end America created its own Frankenstein, the general added.
Custer offered no comments on the situation in Iraq where 4,000 U.S. soldiers have died in that occupation.
-- Jim Grinstead
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