Fidel Castro's announcement that he will not accept another term as president marks the beginning of a change in our relationship with that country.
But don't expect it to happen soon.
The real end-game is not what will happen with Cuba's next president -- expected to be brother Raul Castro -- but with the president following that. At age 76, Raul is not in a position to hold the job for a long time and, because he has not solidified power as did his older brother, he will have less political strength.
Castro's history, both as a dictator and in his relations with the United States, will make it politically impossible for the U.S. to simply open the door to Cuba when the job shifts to his brother. U.S. officials have already said they won't recommend an end to the embargo just because Fidel is no longer in power.
What's more likely is that the door will be opened by other countries. European leaders have said they could consider relations with Cuba once Fidel steps down.
But while Fidel may not longer be president, it would be foolish to believe his presence won't be felt. It would be virtually impossible for Raul, if he were so inclined, to make a major change in Cuba's policies while his brother is alive.
If Cuba wants to change its relations with the world, Raul Castro will have to open the door to the Europeans, then, after Fidel dies, lay the groundwork for a new Cuba and a future Cuban president.
If Raul continues the hard-line policies of his brother, then it's likely that no leader in the foreseeable future will free the country from its isolation.
-- Jim Grinstead
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