Analysis of South Carolina (GOP)
John McCain
Wow. I thought Fred Thompson’s zero-percent chance at the nomination would suppress his support, giving Huckabee the edge in South Carolina. Instead, Fred came on strong late, stealing just enough votes from Huckabee for McCain to squeeze out a victory with only 33% of the vote. That brick wall I predicted? Gone. With SC in his pocket, it looks like McCain may edge out Giuliani in the winner-take-all states of New York and New Jersey, and he’s way out in front in California as well.
Mike Huckabee
Huckabee needed this one bad. Now he looks like a one-state wonder who can’t keep pace with the big boys. He needs Giuliani to win Florida (or to win it himself), or else the emerging perception that this is fast becoming a two-man race between Romney and McCain will cement itself into the minds of the voters.
Fred Thompson
I admit I underestimated Thompson in South Carolina. Now what? Does he stick around to see if he can win fourth place in Florida over Mike Huckabee? That might give him just enough credibility to challenge Huckabee for Georgia and a few other Southern primaries. A few wins down here in the South won’t help him get the nomination, but it does dramatically increase his appeal as a vice presidential candidate. Nah, he drops out before the week is done.
- Rick Lewis
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