Republicans
McCain
McCain is tearing the Republican party apart. Limbaugh, Beck, etc., can’t stand him. The establishment powerbrokers hate him. And yet, that’s part of his appeal. The voters who hate “business as usual” are flocking to him. Could it be there’s something more to the Republican party than abortion, gay marriage, hating immigrants, and cynically manipulating churchgoers? Not if the Bush crowd has anything to say about it. They’ll crush him if they can. And with McCain’s major money shortage, they still might.
Either way, expect half the Republicans to hate their candidate. If it’s Romney, that’s good for the Democrats, because his haters will likely vote Democrat (especially if it’s Obama). If it’s McCain, where will the right-wingers go? Third party? Gosh, I’d love to see that.
Romney
Romney can claim he’s the “change” candidate all he wants because no one believes a word he says. And it doesn’t help his credibility that everyone already knows he’s the establishment’s choice. Can Romney’s cash buy him enough delegates to edge out McCain? Maybe. It’ll be fascinating to watch and find out. I’ve been predicting Romney’s nomination for 12 months now, and I’m still not convinced it’s time to change my mind.
Giuliani
To misquote Sally Field, “They don’t like me. They really don’t like me.” McCain is the obvious candidate to benefit from Giuliani’s surrender, with or without the endorsement.
Democrats
Clinton
Saying Florida and Michigan’s delegates should count after you win them is so transparent and tacky that it’s likely to push undecideds away. And it’s a really bad time to do that with Edwards suddenly dropping out and leaving his supporters up for grabs.
Obama
Florida won’t hurt him, and the sudden rush of endorsements (not just the Kennedys but also Arizona’s and Kansas’s governors) must translate into some first-place finishes on Super Tuesday. Otherwise, he’ll have to start worrying about dividing the party by staying in too long when he can’t catch up. But don’t be surprised if Obama does get some “surprise” victories in New England and maybe even California. Unfortunately, Obama’s biggest challenge in California may be McCain’s momentum, especially if Schwarzenegger endorses.
Edwards
Why not stick it out one more week to Super Tuesday? I hope Elizabeth is okay.
- Rick Lewis
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